On the coronary heart of that threesome is the twenty sixth District, which is probably going the one Obama/Clinton/Trump district in your entire nation. This seat, which includes the southwestern Miami area and the Florida Keys, noticed Clinton broaden on Barack Obama’s 55-44 win and take it 57-41, however that development reversed itself dramatically final yr as Trump carried it 53-47.
This 22-point swing to the precise from 2016 wasn’t simply the most important shift by margin in Florida, it’s the most important we’ve seen in both path for any of the 320 congressional districts we’ve calculated presidential outcomes for thus far. Unsurprisingly, this transformation had deleterious results for Democrats downballot as properly, as Republican Carlos Gimenez unseated freshman Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 52-48.
A equally brutal swing additionally pummeled Workforce Blue within the neighboring twenty seventh District, the place Republican Maria Elvira Salazar likewise denied Democratic Rep. Donna Shalala a second time period. This seat, which is made up of the southern Miami space and Coral Gables, had additionally moved to the left between 2012 and 2016, going from 53-46 Obama to 59-39 Clinton, however Biden’s margin bought pancaked right down to 51-48. That huge drop doomed Shalala, who ran behind the ticket and lost her rematch to Salazar 51-49; two years earlier, it was Shalala who won 52-46.
Trump additionally vastly improved his fortunes in one other close by seat the place he’d struggled in 2016. The twenty fifth District, which stretches throughout the Everglades to incorporate parts of the state’s Atlantic and Gulf coasts, had dipped from 54-45 for Mitt Romney to simply 50-48 for Trump, however this time, it supported the highest of the ticket by an enormous 61-38 margin. Veteran Republican Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, who simply prevailed in 2018 regardless of the blue wave, gained reelection unopposed this time.
Trump’s surge wasn’t confined to those three districts, although. Democratic Rep. Frederica Wilson’s twenty fourth District within the northern Miami space, which includes a large African American and Caribbean American population, remained safely blue turf, however it sank from 83-15 Clinton to 75-24 Biden. Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Shultz’s twenty third District round Broward County, a various seat that’s additionally home to one of the largest Jewish populations in the country, additionally slipped from 62-36 Clinton to 58-41 Biden. A kind of new Trump voters was Donald Trump, who registered to vote at his Mar-a-Lago lair within the district for 2020.
Veteran Democratic Rep. Alcee Hastings’ twentieth District, within the West Palm Seaside and Fort Lauderdale areas, likewise fell from 80-18 Clinton to 77-22 Biden. Lastly, Trump additionally made positive factors to the north within the ninth District, a suburban Orlando seat with a big Puerto Rican inhabitants. The shift wasn’t as massive because it was in South Florida, however the constituency, which is held by Democratic Rep. Darren Soto, nonetheless moved from 55-42 Clinton to a narrower 53-46 for Biden.
None of those incumbents had bother profitable, however Sunshine State Democrats will probably be working exhausting to determine the way to reverse these tendencies in 2022, each to forestall additional erosion within the Home and to protect their hopes of profitable statewide.
Elsewhere, Democrats had hoped for a Biden surge to buoy them however did not see a lot of 1. The thirteenth District round St. Petersburg had slid from 55-44 Obama to 50-46 Clinton, and Biden carried it by the same 51-47 margin. Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist ended up winning 53-47 in a contest that attracted no serious outside spending. Biden additionally solely made small positive factors in comparison with Clinton in a number of GOP-held seats that Workforce Blue focused downballot however however stayed crimson, just like the fifteenth, sixteenth, and 18th Districts.
A couple of areas did see some leftward motion. Republican Rep. John Rutherford’s 4th District within the Jacksonville and St. Augustine areas remained solidly crimson, however Trump’s margin shrunk from 62-34 to 60-39, the most important such shift within the state. Not coincidentally, Biden grew to become the primary Democrat to hold Duval County (whose authorities is consolidated with town of Jacksonville) since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
The second-largest transfer to the left, maybe surprisingly, was in Trump sycophant Matt Gaetz’s 1st District within the Panhandle, which Trump gained 68-28 in 2016 however by a smaller 66-32 this time. Biden additionally continued to make positive factors within the seventh District, a suburban Orlando seat that was risky turf in the beginning of the last decade. The seat went from a particularly slim win for Obama in 2012 to 51-44 Clinton, and Biden took it 55-44 final yr as Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy was winning 55-43.
Sadly for Democrats, the following congressional map is prone to be worse than the present one. Florida voters passed two amendments to the state structure in 2010 that tried to ban partisan gerrymandering, and the state Supreme Court docket used these measures to curtail the GOP’s congressional and state Senate gerrymanders in 2015 and redraw the boundaries. The court docket, nevertheless, has moved hard to the right since then, making it unlikely to aggressively implement these amendments once more to cease Republicans from implementing a brand new gerrymander.