Whereas leads to some statehouses are nonetheless shaking out (yeah, I’m you, Arizona), we already know that Republicans efficiently defended their majorities in a number of key chambers.

Campaign Action

Particularly

  • Iowa Home
  • Michigan Home
  • Minnesota Senate (not set in stone but however seems probably Dems netted just one seat right here)
  • North Carolina Home
  • North Carolina Senate
  • Pennsylvania Home (additionally not set in stone however not trying nice)
  • Texas Home 

So what occurred?

  • Did disaffected Republicans take their ire at Trump out on the high of their ballots after which ticket-split to assist GOPers additional down?
  • Ought to Democrats have labored tougher to tie down-ballot Republicans to Trump?
  • Had been assets allotted poorly?

I might drop a sizzling take right here, however I respect you an excessive amount of for that.

The belief is that we simply don’t know but.

All of these items could possibly be true. None of them could possibly be true.

However listed here are two issues which are 100% true:

  • Democrats had been vying to flip districts particularly gerrymandered to elect Republicans.
  • Whereas the disparity wasn’t as extreme as in cycles previous, Republicans out-raised Democrats and outspent them in a number of key chambers.

However let’s face it: Even when Democrats flip one or each chambers in Arizona, Election Day 2020 was a disappointment.

Ya know what? I’ll take disappointment over a massacre.

Right here’s just a little perspective.

  • Election Day 2010 changed Election Day 2000 as probably the most excruciating of my life, and even 2016 wasn’t savage sufficient to supplant it.
  • And 2020 actually wasn’t.

It’s an oft-forgotten proven fact that Democrats seemed to be sitting fairly earlier than the 2010 elections.

  • They held majorities in 60 chambers.
    • Republicans held simply 36, and two had been tied.
  • However a lot of these majorities had been extraordinarily small.
    • Dems held a number of chambers by simply a few seats.

However then the get together collectively appeared to overlook that redistricting was going to be taking place in 2011.

  • Republicans, as we all know, very a lot did not overlook, they usually outspent Democrats three-to-one to focus on a handful of flippable seats in key chambers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Indiana, and extra.
  • Republicans flipped 21 chambers in 2010.
  • In 2020, they flipped … three.

Don’t get me mistaken: A GOP trifecta in New Hampshire is a Unhealthy Factor.

  • And this implies Republicans get to re-gerrymander that state Senate (and the Home, however with 400 seats, that chamber is all the time a little bit of a crapshoot, actually).
  • However federally, this offers the GOP full management over drawing a complete two congressional districts.

The unhealthy information from Election 2020 isn’t what Republicans gained.

It’s what Republicans efficiently defended.

  • I wrote previously in this space about how the following spherical of redistricting might shake out for Democrats, relying on the extent of success they’d in flipping GOP-held chambers this week.
    • Earlier than Nov. 3, Republicans had full management over the drawing of anyplace from 37% to 45% of all congressional districts nationwide.
      • Democrats would management the drawing of simply 10% to 11%.
        • The remaining districts can be drawn through redistricting commissions (with various levels of independence), compromises reached in states with divided governments, and/or the courts (when a few of these divided governments inevitably impasse).
    • Positive, this three- or four-to-one benefit would have been awful—however not as unhealthy because it was in 2011, when Republicans had a better than five-to-one advantage in drawing congressional districts.

Okay, quick ahead to, like, now.

Let’s speak about how the situation has changed

… and no, it’s not good.

We’re not even speaking pre-election established order right here.

Issues undoubtedly received worse for Democrats within the subsequent spherical of redistricting.

Which suggests successful a majority within the U.S. Home goes to be even tougher for Democrats over the course of the following decade.

  • Tuesday noticed the GOP’s redistricting edge increase from three- or four-to-one to probably four- or five-to-one.

Sure, Republicans might find yourself drawing 5 instances as many districts as Democrats.

Tuesday’s election outcomes create a grave danger of one other decade of minority rule by the GOP each in Congress and in statehouses nationwide.

However there’s one thing else at play within the upcoming spherical of redistricting that wasn’t a think about 2011.

  • Again then, many new maps in southern states had been topic to the preclearance requirement of the Voting Rights Act.
    • … a requirement the U.S. Supreme Courtroom killed in Shelby County v. Holder again in 2013.
      • This ruling additionally paved the way in which for a brand new wave of voter suppression legal guidelines, the repercussions of which we’re nonetheless coping with as I kind, as votes are nonetheless being counted in locations like Georgia and Arizona.

My proficient Day by day Kos Elections colleagues have assembled a super detailed breakdown of how Tuesday’s outcomes impression the following spherical of redistricting, however listed here are the essential toplines:

  • Why we nonetheless care what occurs in Arizona regardless that they’ve an Unbiased Redistricting Fee: 
    • Governor: Republican (up in 2022)
    • Home: Republican? (uncalled)
    • Senate: Republican? (uncalled)
      • Arizona has had an independent redistricting commission in place since 2000, however with the U.S. Supreme Courtroom’s newly conservative configuration, the IRC is at a giant of danger of being struck down.
        • Republicans within the legislature have repeatedly sought to undermine the fee, so ending the GOP’s management of state authorities would assist insulate and protect it.
      • If Democrats are in a position to flip a legislative chamber, the state’s divided authorities would kind out the aftermath of a ruling or GOP motion towards the IRC.
        • Maybe they’d attain a bipartisan compromise!
          • … extra probably, although, is that new maps can be drawn by the courts, which are inclined to favor nonpartisan districts.
  • Why we care what occurs in Michigan regardless that they’ve an impartial redistricting fee:
    • Governor: Democratic (up in 2022)
    • Home: Republican maintain
    • Senate: Republican (up in 2022)
      • In 2018, Michigan voters accredited a poll measure establishing a redistricting fee, stripping the legislature of its energy to attract district maps for itself and for the U.S. Home.
  • Minnesota:
    • Governor: Democratic (up in 2022)
    • Home: Democratic maintain
    • Senate: Republican maintain(?—uncalled as of this writing)
      • Democrats seem to have fallen simply quick of their bid to win trifecta management in Minnesota, although remaining tallies have but to be introduced.
      • The state at the moment has nonpartisan maps drawn by a court docket and is poised to once more after 2020.
  • New Hampshire:
    • Governor: Republican maintain
    • Home: Republican flip
    • Senate: Republican flip
      • Yeah, didn’t assume I’d be speaking about this one.
  • North Carolina:
    • Governor: Democratic maintain (however tremendous irrelevant on this context)
    • Home: Republican maintain
    • Senate: Republican maintain
    • Bonus! Supreme Courtroom: Democratic maintain
      • Battles over redistricting are set to proceed after Republicans not solely maintained their majorities, but additionally unexpectedly gained seats. And though Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper gained reelection, it completely doesn’t matter: he’s unable to veto most key redistricting bills.
      • Republicans ousted a minimum of one Democratic incumbent on the state Supreme Courtroom and lead in two uncalled races the place absentee and provisional ballots will resolve whether or not Democrats majority stays at 6-1 or narrows to 5-2 (and even 4-3).
        • This issues as a result of state courts curtailed the GOP’s gerrymanders final yr.
        • However whereas these rulings curbed the GOP’s worst map-drawing excesses, they didn’t entirely eliminate the problem.
  • Pennsylvania:
    • Governor: Democratic (up in 2022)
    • Home: Republican (uncalled however probably) maintain
    • Senate: Republican (uncalled however probably) maintain
  • Texas:
    • Governor: Republican (up in 2022)
    • Home: Republican maintain
    • Senate: Republican maintain
      • I discussed in this space last week that Republicans had been pumping tons of late money into these state Home races, and WOW did that effort repay.
      • Texas is arguably crucial state for Republican congressional gerrymandering, and Democrats did not make the large positive aspects wanted to flip the state Home to interrupt the GOP’s trifecta management of the state.
        • However wait, it will get worse!
          • Democrats additionally failed to put the groundwork for placing down gerrymanders later this decade after Republicans swept all 4 seats up this yr to take care of their 9-0 state Supreme Courtroom majority.

Sigh.

tl;dr— 

  • This spherical of redistricting may not be as unhealthy for Democrats because the final spherical, nevertheless it’s not shaping as much as be a lot better.
    • And relying on SCOTUS interference, it might arguably be worse.

Okay, yet another piece of awful information earlier than I remind you (… and myself) that final night time wasn’t a complete catastrophe.

However on to much less horrible information!

And whereas Republican legislators in lots of states will now should take care of newly elected QAnon believers in their caucuses, Democrats celebrated plenty of constructive firsts.

This record is by no means exhaustive—be at liberty to hit me up with different cool Democratic state legislative first you already know of!