On the high of this publish is our map exhibiting ballot closing instances throughout the nation. All instances are Japanese, although we even have variations for each of the other five U.S. timezones. And for a fast reference for each aggressive contest within the nation, take a look at our race ratings page.
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Indiana (Japanese Time Zone), and Kentucky (Japanese Time Zone)
• Indiana: Essentially the most aggressive contest within the Hoosier State by far is the open seat race for the fifth Congressional District within the northern Indianapolis space, which is likely one of the many ancestrally crimson suburban seats we’ll be discussing that has moved to the left throughout the Trump period. Former Democratic state Rep. Christina Hale goes up in opposition to Republican state Sen. Victoria Spartz in a race that has attracted hundreds of thousands in exterior spending from each side.
• Kentucky: Senate Majority Chief Mitch McConnell is the overwhelming favourite to win reelection in opposition to Democrat Amy McGrath. Over within the sixth District within the Lexington space, the identical seat McGrath unsuccessfully sought in 2018, Republican Rep. Andy Barr faces a well-funded Democratic opponent in legal professional Josh Hicks in what’s a protracted shot pickup alternative for Staff Blue.
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Florida (Japanese Time Zone), Indiana (remainder of state), Kentucky (remainder of state), Georgia, New Hampshire (most cities), South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
• Florida: Whereas the primary deal with Florida would be the race for its 29 electoral votes, the Sunshine State is also taking part in host to a number of notable Home races. Essentially the most aggressive seat to observe is the twenty sixth District within the Miami space, the place freshman Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell faces Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez in probably the most costly Home races within the nation.
Over within the neighboring twenty seventh District, freshman Democratic Rep. Donna Shalala is up in opposition to former journalist Maria Elvira Salazar, whom Shalala beat 52-46 in 2018. Salazar has raised loads of cash, however in a great signal for Shalala, the surface teams that spent hundreds of thousands right here in 2018 have steered away from their rematch. To the northwest within the St. Petersburg-based thirteenth District, Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist is the heavy favourite in opposition to Air Drive veteran Anna Paulina Luna in a seat that lurched to the correct in 2016 however appears more likely to shift again to the left.
Democrats are additionally hoping to seize a trio of Republican-held seats, although Staff Purple has a decisive benefit in all three. Essentially the most fascinating of those appears to be the fifteenth District within the exurbs of Tampa and Orlando, the place Lakeland Metropolis Commissioner Scott Franklin unseated scandal-plagued Rep. Ross Spano within the August Republican major. In a possible signal of bother for Franklin, the Congressional Management Fund, which is the highest Republican tremendous PAC that performs in Home races, started airing adverts in opposition to his Democratic opponent, former information anchor Alan Cohn, late within the contest. Nevertheless, Democratic teams by no means stepped in to counter.
In the meantime, Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan faces Democratic state Rep. Margaret Good within the sixteenth District within the Sarasota space, whereas fellow GOP Rep. Brian Mast is defending his 18th District within the northern Palm Seaside space from Navy veteran Pam Keith. Each Democrats have raised credible quantities of cash, however neither contest has attracted severe exterior spending.
• Georgia: The Peach State has two closely-watched Senate races, although they’ll be working beneath considerably totally different guidelines. Within the commonly scheduled contest, Republican incumbent David Perdue faces each Democrat Jon Ossoff and Libertarian Shane Hazel. If Hazel prevents both main get together nominee from taking a majority of the vote, Perdue and Ossoff would sq. off in a Jan. 5 runoff.
The particular election, in the meantime, can be an all-party major that pits all of the candidates in opposition to each other on one poll. Within the doubtless occasion that nobody takes a majority, the highest two vote-getters, no matter get together, would compete in a second spherical, additionally on Jan. 5. Nationwide Democrats have consolidated behind pastor Raphael Warnock, who is in first place in every recent poll, whereas the battle for second pits rich appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler in opposition to a fellow Republican, Rep. Doug Collins. This seat can be up once more in 2022 for a full six-year time period.
There are additionally two Home contests to observe within the Atlanta space, although Trump’s toxicity within the Atlanta suburbs provides Democrats the benefit in each. The race for the sixth District is a rematch between freshman Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath and the girl she unseated in a good 2018 upset, former Republican Rep. Karen Handel. The battle for the open seventh District subsequent door is a duel between Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux–who got here shockingly near profitable right here two years in the past in opposition to outgoing incumbent Rob Woodall–and doctor Wealthy McCormick.
• New Hampshire: With each Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and Republican Gov. Chris Sununu far forward of their respective reelection campaigns, the primary motion within the Granite State is within the swingy 1st District. Most polls show freshman Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas effectively forward of his GOP foe, former Trump aide Matt Mowers, although a late survey from the College of New Hampshire gave Mowers a 50-48 edge. Exterior teams aren’t treating it as aggressive, although, so it could be an enormous shock if Pappas has issues.
• South Carolina: The primary occasion is the unexpectedly close and record-smashingly costly Senate race between Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham and Democrat Jaime Harrison. Trump will nearly definitely win South Carolina, so Graham has some room for error, however Harrison and his allies are working to win over conservative voters who dislike their longtime senator. Harrison’s facet can be making an attempt to influence anti-Graham voters to again Structure Occasion nominee Invoice Bledsoe, whose identify stays on the poll despite the fact that he dropped out of the race a few month earlier than Election Day and endorsed the incumbent.
Within the 1st District alongside the coast, freshman Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham is defending the seat he received in a significant 2018 upset from Republican state Rep. Nancy Mace. Each events are spending large quantities on this historically crimson seat, although Republicans reportedly are pessimistic about Mace’s prospects. Veteran Republican Rep. Joe Wilson, in the meantime, faces a well-funded problem from legal professional Adair Ford Boroughs within the 2nd District, however he’ll be robust to beat in what’s often very crimson territory.
• Virginia: Two freshmen Democrats are locked in costly contests to defend seats they flipped in 2018. Within the seventh District within the Richmond suburbs, Rep. Abigail Spanberger is making an attempt to fend off Republican Del. Nick Freitas. In the meantime, Rep. Elaine Luria faces a rematch in opposition to former Republican Rep. Scott Taylor, whom she narrowly beat final cycle, within the 2nd District within the Virginia Seaside space. There was no publicly launched polling within the seventh District, however within the 2nd, Luria posted a seven-point edge in a current survey from Christopher Newport College.
The GOP, in the meantime, is on the defensive within the fifth District, a seat that stretches from Charlottesville to south-central Virginia. Campbell County Supervisor Bob Good received the Republican nomination in opposition to Rep. Denver Riggleman again in June, however he’s been massively outspent within the common election by Democrat Cameron Webb, a doctor who can be the realm’s first Black consultant in over a century. Democratic polls have shown Webb in position to take what’s been a conservative district, and out of doors teams from each side have been spending closely right here.
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North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia
• North Carolina: Either side have poured large sums into the Senate race between Republican incumbent Thom Tillis and former Democratic state Sen. Cal Cunningham, a battle that may effectively resolve management of the chamber. Cunningham has endured a barrage of destructive information protection and GOP assault adverts after acknowledging that he’d had a relationship with a girl who was not his spouse, however most polls have continued to find him with a small lead. The Tar Heel State can be internet hosting a contest for governor, however widespread Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper has decisively led Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Forest all through the race.
We’re additionally watching just a few Home races in North Carolina, which has a brand new congressional map this 12 months that changed a brutal GOP gerrymander because of court-ordered redistricting. Because of the brand new strains, Democrats have two “gimme” pickups within the revamped 2nd and sixth Districts, each of that are open seats, whereas Republicans are on the protection elsewhere.
Essentially the most aggressive contest is the eighth District within the Fayetteville and Charlotte suburbs, the place Republican Rep. Richard Hudson is making an attempt to fend off Democrat Patricia Timmons-Goodson, who was the primary Black lady to serve on the North Carolina Supreme Courtroom. Trump decisively received right here 4 years in the past, however exterior teams started spending right here within the remaining weeks of the marketing campaign as Democrats released polls showing a tight race.
Within the eleventh District within the western a part of the state, CLF has aired adverts to assist businessman Madison Cawthorn fend off his Democratic rival, Air Drive veteran Moe Davis, in what’s traditionally been a really crimson seat. And within the ninth District within the Charlotte suburbs, allies of Democrat Cynthia Wallace released a poll in the final days exhibiting her solely narrowly behind freshman GOP Rep. Dan Bishop in a race that exterior teams haven’t been concerned in.
• Ohio: Essentially the most susceptible Republican congressman by far is veteran Rep. Steve Chabot, who’s defending the first District, a badly gerrymandered seat within the Cincinnati space, from former healthcare government Kate Schroder in what’s turn into a really costly contest.
Over in tenth District, Republican Rep. Mike Turner has been outspent by Democrat Desiree Tims in a Dayton-based seat he’s at all times decisively received reelection in. Republican Rep. Troy Balerson can be favored in opposition to businesswoman Alaina Shearer within the twelfth District, although he may have issues on this northern Columbus space seat on a really unhealthy evening for his get together.
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Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida (remainder of state), Illinois, Kansas (Central Time Zone), Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan (Japanese Time Zone), Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire (remainder of state), New Jersey, North Dakota (Central Time Zone), Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota (Central Time Zone), Tennessee, Texas (Central Time Zone), Washington, D.C.
• Alabama: Democratic Sen. Doug Jones is by far probably the most susceptible member of the Senate following his extraordinary upset in a 2017 particular election, and most polls present him badly trailing former Auburn soccer coach Tommy Tuberville on this very crimson state. Jones has decisively outspent his Republican foe, however it could rely as an enormous shock if he held on.
• Illinois: Essentially the most aggressive contest within the Prairie State is the rematch between Republican Rep. Rodney Davis and Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan within the thirteenth District within the central a part of the state. Davis narrowly fended off Londrigan in 2018, and each side are spending hundreds of thousands for his or her return engagement.
To the north within the western Chicago exurbs, freshman Democratic Rep. Lauren Underwood is favored to carry the 14th District in opposition to Republican state Sen. Jim Oberweis. Republicans spent heavily in an unsuccessful attempt to cease Oberweis, who has a protracted historical past of shedding high-profile contests, from capturing the GOP nod, however they’ve finished nothing to assist him now that he’s their nominee.
Lastly, Republicans are making a late try and unseat Rep. Cheri Bustos, who serves as Democratic Congressional Marketing campaign Committee (DCCC) chair, within the seventeenth District in western Illinois. Republicans released two polls in the final weeks exhibiting her solely 5 to 6 factors forward of actual property legal professional Esther Pleasure King, and the CLF put its cash the place its mouth is by spending $500,000. It will be an enormous shock if Bustos misplaced in a seat she’s at all times held with ease, although her allies at Home Majority PAC did start an advert marketing campaign to assist her over the last week of the election.
• Kansas: Democrats haven’t received a U.S. Senate seat in Kansas since 1932, by far the longest such streak within the nation, however each side are taking the battle between GOP Rep. Roger Marshall and Democratic state Sen. Barbara Bollier very severely. Most up-to-date polls have Marshall ahead in a state that Trump will take, although Bollier’s staff not too long ago launched numbers exhibiting her narrowly up.
Republican state Treasurer Jake LaTurner can be defending the 2nd District, which grew to become open after he beat scandal-ridden Rep. Steve Watkins within the major. The Democrats are fielding Topeka Mayor Michelle De La Isla, however exterior teams aren’t treating this like a aggressive contest.
• Maine: After a profession of simple reelections in her blue-leaning state, Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces the problem of her life from state Home Speaker Sara Gideon, a Democrat who has been one of many get together’s strongest fundraisers. Polls present Gideon forward, however usually by only a small margin. Two independents, Max Linn and Lisa Savage, are additionally on the poll on this instant-runoff race, and most surveys present Gideon benefitting as soon as they’re eradicated from rivalry.
Over within the rural 2nd District within the northern a part of the state, freshman Democratic Rep. Jared Golden is the robust favourite in opposition to former state Rep. Dale Crafts. This seat gave Trump its electoral vote 4 years in the past and should accomplish that once more, however polls show Golden far ahead, and main teams have largely deserted this race.
• Michigan: The Wolverine State affords the GOP its finest pickup alternative within the Senate after Alabama, however most up-to-date polls present Democratic incumbent Gary Peters decisively leading Republican John James. James has been an excellent fundraiser, however he’ll doubtless want Trump to at the least come near taking the state’s electoral votes once more to prevail, an end result that few surveys present occurring.
Essentially the most aggressive Home race is within the third District, a Grand Rapids seat held by retiring Rep. Justin Amash, a Republican-turned-independent-turned-Libertarian. Either side have spent closely within the race between Democrat Hillary Scholten, an immigration legal professional, and Republican Peter Meijer, whose household owns an eponymous retail chain with nearly 200 areas. Every get together has released polls showing their candidate ahead, however even Staff Purple’s surveys discover Joe Biden on observe to hold this traditionally crimson constituency.
Republicans are additionally defending the sixth District within the Kalamazoo space, the place longtime Rep. Fred Upton goes up in opposition to state Rep. Jon Hoadley. Nationwide Republicans ran a number of destructive adverts in opposition to Hoadley in September and in early October however largely stopped, whereas Democrats by no means spent a lot right here.
Two freshmen Democrats, Reps. Elissa Slotkin and Haley Stevens, are additionally in search of reelection in seats they flipped final cycle. Whereas Slotkin’s eighth District within the Lansing space has often been the extra conservative of the 2, each events have spent far more within the contest between Stevens and legal professional Eric Esshaki within the eleventh in suburban Detroit. Each incumbents are however favored.
• Mississippi: Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith beat former Democratic Rep. Mike Espy 54-46 of their 2018 particular election, and Espy is in search of a rematch. Espy has massively outspent the incumbent, however it will likely be an enormous problem for him to prevail on this crimson state.
• Missouri: Republican Gov. Mike Parson faces a reputable problem from Democratic state Auditor Nicole Galloway, however polls show him with the advantage in a state that’s moved arduous to the correct over the past decade. The scenario is reversed for Republican Rep. Ann Wagner within the 2nd District, although, as she defends a suburban St. Louis seat that has trended the opposite means. Wagner has a well-funded opponent in state Sen. Jill Schupp, and each events have spent closely right here.
• New Jersey: Freshman Rep. Jeff Van Drew infuriated Democrats when he left the get together in December and pledged his “timeless help” for Donald Trump. He now faces a troublesome race within the 2nd District from psychological well being advocate Amy Kennedy. Each events have spent closely on this seat alongside the southern New Jersey coast, and a late October ballot from Stockton College found Kennedy narrowly ahead.
In the meantime, two freshmen Democrats are favored in seats they flipped in 2018. Republicans had deliberate to focus on Rep. Andy Kim within the third District, one other South Jersey seat that Trump carried, however they’ve finished little to help businessman David Richter’s bid. The race up north within the suburban seventh District between Rep. Tom Malinowski and state Senate Republican Chief Tom Kean Jr. is way costlier, however Malinowski has the benefit of operating in an space that’s been shifting left.
• Oklahoma: Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn flipped the fifth District within the Oklahoma Metropolis space in what could have been the largest shock of the midterms, so it is no shock that each events have devoted heavy assets to this 12 months’s battle between Horn and Republican state Sen. Stephanie Bice. Polls show a close race in a seat that Trump decisively received, however Biden could possibly take the district this time.
• Pennsylvania: Two Republican incumbents face robust challenges in very totally different seats. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick ran effectively forward of the ticket throughout his prior two campaigns for the first District in Philadelphia’s northern suburbs, however with Biden on observe to do very effectively right here, the congressman’s crossover attraction faces its biggest take a look at in his race in opposition to Democrat Christina Finello.
To the west within the tenth District within the Harrisburg space, Rep. Scott Perry is defending a seat that Trump decisively received however that Democratic polls present Biden carrying. Team Blue’s surveys have also found state Auditor Eugene DePasquale forward of Perry, although the incumbent ultimately responded with extra favorable numbers.
If Republicans are having an unexpectedly good evening, they are able to give Reps. Matt Cartwright and Conor Lamb robust races within the eighth and seventeenth Districts, respectively, however they’ve finished little to help their candidates in both contest.
• Texas: In the end, Texas is verging on swing-state standing and is taking part in host to an enormous variety of aggressive races up and down the ticket. Republican Sen. John Cornyn has led Air Drive veteran MJ Hegar in most polls, however Democrats launched a well-funded late effort to spice up her. Cornyn has often run forward of Trump, however he could have issues if Biden is ready to flip this longtime GOP stronghold.
Staff Blue can be on the offensive in Home races throughout the state, and the get together’s finest pickup alternative appears just like the twenty third District in West Texas. Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones got here unexpectedly near profitable it in 2018 in opposition to Republican Rep. Will Hurd, and she or he grew to become the favourite to win it after Hurd opted to retire. Nevertheless, regardless of some predictions that Republicans would cede the district, Staff Purple has spent closely to help Navy veteran Tony Gonzales.
Home Democrats are additionally hoping to make positive factors in seats situated in Texas’ traditionally crimson suburbs. Two main targets are the open twenty second and twenty fourth Districts, that are within the Houston and Dallas-Fort Price areas, respectively. The twenty second encompasses a battle between 2018 Democratic nominee Sri Preston Kulkarni, who did unexpectedly effectively throughout that marketing campaign, and Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls. The twenty fourth, in the meantime, pits Democrat Candace Valenzuela, who’s a former faculty board member, in opposition to ex-Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne.
There’s one other very aggressive contest within the badly gerrymandered twenty first District, which stretches from Austin to San Antonio, between GOP incumbent Chip Roy and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Wendy Davis. We’re additionally watching the tenth District, one other contorted district that snakes from Austin to western Houston. Longtime Republican Rep. Michael McCaul solely held off Democrat Mike Siegel 51-47 in a 2018 contest that attracted little consideration, and Siegel has far extra money for his second bid.
Democrats are additionally hoping to defeat Republican incumbents in 5 extra suburban seats: The 2nd District within the Houston space; the third and sixth Districts within the Dallas-Fort Price metroplex; and the twenty fifth and thirty first round Austin. All of those districts are nonetheless fairly conservative, although, and a Democratic win in any would rely as a significant upset.
Two Democrats, in the meantime, are defending suburban seats they flipped in 2018, however they’re each in a great place. Whereas Republicans closely touted Military veteran Wesley Hunt’s prospects in opposition to Rep. Lizzie Fletcher within the West Houston seventh District, each events have directed their resources to the extra aggressive twenty second District. Either side have additionally largely ignored the thirty second District, a Dallas-area seat the place Rep. Colin Allred faces self-funder Genevieve Collins.
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• Arkansas: Republican Rep. French Hill faces an unexpectedly robust and costly struggle in opposition to Democratic state Sen. Joyce Elliott, who can be Arkansas’ first Black member of Congress, within the 2nd District. Whereas Trump decisively carried this Little Rock space seat, each Democratic and impartial polls find a tight race each for the Home and the presidency right here.
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Arizona, Colorado, Kansas (remainder of state), Louisiana, Michigan (remainder of state), Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota (remainder of state), South Dakota (remainder of state), Texas (remainder of state), Wisconsin, Wyoming
• Arizona: Nearly each ballot taken this 12 months has shown Democrat Mark Kelly running ahead of appointed Republican Sen. Martha McSally on this particular election, and it could be a shock if he didn’t prevail. The winner can be up for a full time period in 2022.
Democrats are additionally focusing on Republican Rep. David Schweikert within the sixth District, which is situated within the Phoenix suburbs. Schweikert accepted a formal reprimand from the Home Ethics Committee this summer time and admitted to 11 totally different violations of congressional guidelines and marketing campaign finance legal guidelines, a scandal that each drained his assets and gave Democrat Hiral Tipirneni a prepared line of assault.
Republicans, although, are hoping that legal professional Tiffany Shedd will unseat Rep. Tom O’Halleran within the 1st District in northern Arizona. Trump narrowly carried this sprawling rural seat, and each events have been spending right here.
• Colorado: Sen. Cory Gardner has been probably the most susceptible Republican within the chamber because the begin of the cycle, and he’s consistently polled well behind former Gov. John Hickenlooper. Exterior teams have scaled back their spending, and something however a transparent Hickenlooper win can be an actual stunner.
The scenario is extra sophisticated within the third District in western Colorado, the place QAnon defender Lauren Boebert toppled GOP Rep. Scott Tipton in a real major shocker. The Democrats are fielding former state Rep. Diane Mitsch Bush, who misplaced to Tipton 52-44 final cycle, and out of doors teams from each events have been spending closely right here. Republicans often do effectively on this space, although, so even a horrible candidate like Boebert retains the sting.
• Louisiana: Republican Sen. Invoice Cassidy is closely favored in what has turn into a really crimson state, however Democrats are hoping that Shreveport Mayor Adrian Perkins will be capable to preserve the incumbent from taking the vast majority of the vote within the all-party major that the incumbent would wish to keep away from a Dec. 5 runoff.
A second spherical of voting, although, is all however assured within the crowded race to succeed retiring Rep. Ralph Abraham within the fifth District, a safely crimson seat within the northeast a part of the state. The 2 important Republican candidates are state Rep. Lance Harris and Luke Letlow, a former Abraham chief of workers who’s operating together with his boss’ help. It’s at all times doable, although, that one other candidate from both get together may deny one in every of these contenders a spot within the runoff.
• Minnesota: Recent polls have disagreed on whether or not Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is just narrowly forward of former Republican Rep. Jason Lewis or poised to win comfortably. Nevertheless, main teams on each side have stayed out of this contest, so insiders are appearing like Smith is the straightforward favourite.
In the meantime, every get together has one Home member who’s locked in a troublesome race. Freshman Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn faces a rematch with Democrat Dan Feehan, whom he narrowly beat in 2018 in southern Minnesota’s 1st District. Veteran Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson, in the meantime, goes up in opposition to former Lt. Gov. Michelle Fischbach within the seventh District, a seat within the rural western a part of the state that Trump is poised to hold by a large margin as soon as once more. Peterson used to win this conservative space with ease each cycle, however he struggled in each 2016 and 2018 in opposition to an underfunded foe.
Over within the 2nd District, freshman Democratic Rep. Angie Craig is favored in opposition to Marine veteran Tyler Kistner in a suburban Twin Cities seat that’s been shifting to the left. This race was briefly postponed till February when Authorized Marijuana Occasion Now candidate Adam Weeks died, however the November date was reinstated by a federal decide.
• Nebraska: Republican Rep. Don Bacon solely narrowly defeated Democrat Kara Eastman in 2018 after nationwide Democrats pulled out of the 2nd District, however each events have made positive to spend loads of cash for his or her rematch on this Omaha-area seat. Polls find a tight race as Biden is in a robust place to hold the district (and its lone electoral vote), however Bacon is hoping to carry on by relentlessly portraying Eastman as a socialist.
• New Mexico: Freshman Democratic Rep. Xochitl Torres Small narrowly defeated former state Rep. Yvette Herrell to flip the 2nd District in 2018, and we’ve got yet one more costly rematch on faucet. In contrast to many different Home battlegrounds, although, Trump could be very more likely to as soon as once more carry this southern New Mexico seat.
• New York: Democrats are totally on offense within the Empire State, however Republicans are making a severe effort to avenge two of their 2018 losses. Each events have spent closely within the race between freshman Democratic Rep. Max Rose and GOP Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis within the eleventh District, which accommodates all of Staten Island and a slice of Brooklyn. Malliotakis has been making an attempt to tie Rose to nationwide Democrats in a seat that Trump is more likely to carry once more, whereas Rose has framed himself as a candidate keen to face as much as his get together. The one ballot we’ve seen was a late October Marist survey that gave Malliotakis a narrow lead.
The twenty second District, in the meantime, encompasses a rematch between freshman Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi and Republican Claudia Tenney, whom he narrowly unseated final time. Trump decisively carried this seat in 2018, however an early October Siena ballot discovered Biden narrowly forward as Brindisi led 48-39. Each events have spent large quantities right here, although, so nobody is appearing like that is something however shut.
The neighboring twenty fourth District options one other acquainted lineup as Republican Rep. John Katko is as soon as once more doing battle with Democrat Dana Balter on this Syracuse seat. Katko received 53-47 final time and each side suppose he’ll run forward of Trump, however he’ll want numerous crossover help in a seat that polls present Biden doing effectively in.
Lastly, Democrats are making a play for 2 Lengthy Island seats. The higher alternative appears to be the open 2nd District, the place Republican Assemblyman Andrew Garbarino goes up in opposition to Babylon City Councilor Jackie Gordon. Each events are additionally committing assets to the first District, the place Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin is on the defensive in opposition to Stony Brook College professor Nancy Goroff.
• Wisconsin: Republican exterior teams unexpectedly determined to focus on veteran Democratic Rep. Ron Variety within the third District, a southwestern Wisconsin seat that Trump flipped in 2016. Nevertheless, Staff Purple later deserted Navy SEAL veteran Derrick Van Orden, who reportedly had to cancel his ads for lack of cash within the remaining days, although Democratic organizations have continued to spend on Variety’s behalf.
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Idaho (Mountain Time Zone), Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Oregon (Mountain Time Zone), Utah
• Iowa: The large sport on the town is the Senate race, the place most polls present Republican incumbent Joni Ernst locked in a tight race with Democrat Theresa Greenfield. That is one other contest that very effectively may resolve management of your entire chamber.
Democrats, in the meantime, are defending a trio of Home seats that Trump carried in 2016, although a mid-October ballot from Monmouth gave Team Blue the lead in all three costly contests. The first District within the northeast pits freshman Democratic Rep. Abby Finkenauer in opposition to Republican state Rep. Ashley Hinson, a former TV newscaster.
The 2nd District within the southeast, which is the one aggressive Democratic-held open seat within the nation, is a battle between former Democratic state Sen. Rita Hart and Republican state Sen. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who has unsuccessfully run right here on three earlier events. The third District, within the Des Moines space, is one other 2018 rematch, with freshman Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne going up once more in opposition to former Republican Rep. David Younger.
• Montana: We’ve three aggressive statewide races in Montana. Essentially the most high-profile is the Senate race between Republican incumbent Steve Daines and Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock, the place Daines has usually enjoyed a small edge. The race to succeed Bullock, in the meantime, pits Republican Rep. Greg Gianforte in opposition to Democratic Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney. There, Staff Purple has led in almost every survey.
Each events are additionally spending tons of cash within the struggle to succeed Gianforte as Montana’s solely member of the Home. Former Democratic state Rep. Kathleen Williams, who misplaced to Gianforte final cycle, goes up in opposition to the GOP’s unsuccessful 2018 Senate nominee, state Auditor Matt Rosendale. Latest polls have proven a tie or a small Rosendale lead.
• Nevada: The large down-ballot race to observe is within the third District in Las Vegas’ southern suburbs, the place freshman Democratic Rep. Susie Lee is being challenged by former skilled wrestler Dan Rodimer. Lee received decisively right here in 2018 and this looks as if an space the place Trump will wrestle to repeat his slender 2016 win, however each side have devoted hundreds of thousands to this contest. The 4th District within the northern Vegas space has gotten far much less consideration, although Democrats started airing adverts within the remaining week to assist Rep. Steven Horsford in opposition to Republican Jim Marchant.
• Utah: The state’s best race is the battle within the 4th District between freshman Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams, who narrowly flipped this suburban Salt Lake Metropolis seat in 2018, and former NFL security Burgess Owens. Each events have spent large quantities right here, however there’s been treasured little polling: The one current survey was an RMG Analysis ballot giving Owens a slim edge.
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California, Oregon (remainder of state), Washington
• California: The Golden State doesn’t have fairly as many aggressive seats as Texas, however there’s nonetheless rather a lot to see. Essentially the most susceptible Republican by far is Republican Rep. Mike Garcia, who retook the twenty fifth District in northern Los Angeles County for his get together in a Might particular election after the GOP misplaced it within the midterms. Garcia faces a rematch in opposition to Assemblywoman Christy Smith, who misplaced that low-turnout particular 56-44 however is more likely to profit from a big presidential voters in a seat Trump misplaced in 2016.
To the north within the twenty first District, freshman Democratic Rep. TJ Cox has a rematch in opposition to former Republican Rep. David Valadao, whom he narrowly unseated in a 2018 shocker. Trump badly misplaced this Southern Central Valley seat in 2016, however Democrats reportedly have been nervous about Cox’s prospects in opposition to Valadao, who has at all times run forward of the ticket.
One other return engagement is on faucet far to the south within the thirty ninth District round Fullerton, the place freshman Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros beat Republican Younger Kim 52-48 final time. Kim is operating once more, however she faces headwinds in a various suburban seat that Trump will doubtless wrestle in. Republican teams notably have not aired adverts right here, although Cisneros is getting exterior assist. Either side have, nonetheless, engaged closely within the forty eighth District alongside the Orange County coast, the place freshman Democratic Rep. Harley Rouda is making an attempt to fend off Orange County Supervisor Michelle Metal in a seat Trump narrowly misplaced in 2016.
Democrats are additionally hoping to unseat Republican Rep. Tom McClintock within the 4th District within the Sacramento exurbs, although that is very a lot a protracted shot. Former Republican Rep. Darrell Issa can be favored to return to Congress by profitable the fiftieth District in inland San Diego County, which is considerably extra conservative than the seat he retired from in 2018, although Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar has been operating a well-funded marketing campaign. Lastly, there’s an all-Democratic race within the open 53rd District between former State Division official Sara Jacobs, who has led in every poll that’s been released, and San Diego Metropolis Council President Georgette Gómez.
• Oregon: Longtime Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio has by no means had bother profitable reelection within the coastal 4th District regardless of its swingy nature on the presidential degree, however Republicans unexpectedly determined to focus on him. Former Oregon Nationwide Guardsman Alek Skarlatos, who attracted worldwide consideration in 2015 when he helped cease a terrorist assault on a prepare in Europe, has been a robust fundraiser, and Democratic exterior teams have responded by spending over $1 million right here. It will nonetheless be a significant shock, although, if DeFazio misplaced on this political local weather.
• Washington: Southern Washington’s third District options one other 2018 rematch between Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler and Democrat Carolyn Lengthy. The incumbent prevailed 53-47 two years in the past and is favored once more in a seat that moved in the direction of Trump in 2016, however each events started spending massive quantities right here within the remaining weeks. We even have an all-Democratic common for the open tenth District within the Tacoma space between former Tacoma Mayor Marilyn Strickland, who has a repute as a reasonable, and state Rep. Beth Doglio, the extra progressive of the 2. Strickland seems to have the sting.
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Alaska (Alaska Daylight Time), Hawaii
• Alaska: Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan faces an unexpectedly robust battle in opposition to orthopedic surgeon Al Gross, an impartial who has the Democratic nod. Gross has dramatically outspent Sullivan, and Democratic-aligned exterior teams have additionally loved an enormous monetary edge. Nevertheless, most polls, together with some from pro-Gross teams, have discovered the incumbent at least narrowly ahead.
Lastly, Republican Rep. Don Younger, who has served as Alaska’s solely Home member since 1973, additionally faces a aggressive rematch in opposition to Alyse Galvin, one other impartial who earned the Democratic Occasion’s nomination. Younger beat Galvin by a modest 53-47 in a 2018 contest that attracted little consideration till the top, however this time, there was heavy exterior spending on each side. Polling has been fairly scarce right here, although a mid-October Siena ballot showed Young with a 49-41 advantage.
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Alaska (remainder of state)