That is the fourth presidential election for our “pres-by-CD venture,” as we informally name it, however there’s one key distinction this time: A brand new spherical of redistricting is about to start, which means new congressional districts can be utilized in 2022. We’re crunching numbers for the present districts, although, in order that we are able to measure how a lot the brand new boundaries do, or don’t, change the partisan make-up of every district, which is a really great tool for evaluating gerrymandering. We’re additionally sure to see some particular elections over the subsequent two years that may be held utilizing the present district traces, so our knowledge will assist decide early on which races could possibly be aggressive.
Now, to the numbers! Oklahoma’s top-lines barely budged over the past 4 years: In 2016 it voted 65-29 for Trump, whereas this 12 months it gave Trump an analogous 65-33 victory, a shift that may be attributed to weaker showings by third-party candidates. For the fifth presidential election in a row, the GOP nominee for president carried each single one among Oklahoma’s 77 counties, and Trump, unsurprisingly, additionally received every of the Sooner State’s 5 congressional districts.
Whereas his statewide numbers didn’t shift a lot, Trump did see a bigger collapse within the Oklahoma Metropolis-based fifth District, the place his successful margin shrunk from 53-40 to 52-46—his weakest displaying within the state. Democrats scored a significant upset within the fifth District in 2018 when Democrat Kendra Horn unseated Republican Steve Russell, however Trump’s decline on the prime of the ticket wasn’t sufficient to save lots of Horn, who lost her first bid for reelection to Republican Stephanie Bice 52-48. Democrats may conceivably win again a seat like this one sooner or later, however Republicans, who may have unfettered management over redistricting subsequent 12 months, could merely divide the blue island of Oklahoma Metropolis between a number of districts.
In the meantime, Trump as soon as once more took at the very least 60% of the vote in Oklahoma’s different 4 congressional districts. Trump’s strongest margin of victory got here in Republican Rep. Markwayne Mullin’s 2nd District within the japanese a part of the state, which he took 76-22. This area, nicknamed “Little Dixie,” was comparatively pleasant turf for Democrats up till a decade in the past: A earlier model of the 2nd District decisively elected Democratic Rep. Dan Boren to a fourth time period as late as 2010. Boren retired in 2012, although, and Mullin has had no hassle holding it in opposition to all Democratic comers throughout any of his 5 campaigns.
P.S. — After we’ve launched the presidential outcomes for all 435 Home districts, Day by day Kos Elections will circle again and continue our project to calculate the presidential election outcomes for each legislative district within the nation.